Spain’s economy looks resilient on the surface, but a climate time bomb is ticking beneath the surface. An OECD assessment warns the country remains one of Europe’s most exposed to climate change, threatening growth, public health, and the gains from tourism and green investment. The cost is escalating: experts estimate that heatwaves, droughts, floods, and wildfires pushed losses to €12.2 billion in 2025, projected to rise to €34.8 billion by 2029. This is not a distant risk but a current pressure that could ripple across Europe, including Romania, if adaptation lags.
The weather shocks are already shaping outcomes across Spain. Extreme rainfall events have become more frequent and intense, with floods in Catalonia and the deadly Valencia DANA of 2024 featuring torrential downpours that exceeded 770 litres per square metre in 24 hours and overflowing rivers such as the Rambla del Poyo. Last year’s Valencia floods alone highlighted how urbanization of high-risk zones concentrates risk, while heatwaves deepen health risks and curb productivity. The summer of 2025 was the hottest on record, averaging 24.2°C between June and August, with a single-day peak of 45.8°C in Jerez de la Frontera on August 17.
Spain has pushed ahead with renewables, and solar and wind now supply more than half of annual generation. Yet demand is set to grow by more than 40% by 2030, underscoring a critical need for grid expansion, stronger interconnections, and large-scale storage to prevent curtailment and grid congestion. Transport emissions remain a sizable portion of Spain’s footprint, and rising vehicle ownership coupled with weak price signals to switch to cleaner options partially offsets efficiency gains. These dynamics show that decarbonisation and resilience must go hand in hand.
Policy and investment patterns matter. The OECD notes that growth has benefited from the EU Recovery and Resilience Funds and government spending, but climate risk now calls for targeted adaptation investments and robust infrastructure. Integrating heat adaptation into urban planning and building codes emerges as a clear priority to protect public health and productivity.
